论柔性战略在中国邮政发展中的应用

文章阐述了柔性战略的含义和特征,阐述了中国邮政实施柔性战略的必要性,提出了邮政企业实行柔性战略管理的推进策略,以提高邮政的应变能力,适应市场的变化。     

北京市中学生关于SARS的认识与反应的跟踪调查研究

2 0 0 3年 5月和 2 0 0 4年 1月 ,通过问卷跟踪调查方式对海淀区某居民小区的中学生有关SARS的认识和反应进行了研究 ,内容涉及中学生对SARS的了解程度及了解方式、关于预防SARS的知识和相应的行为变化等。中学生对SARS有一定的认识和了解 ;各大媒体在SARS期间对于宣传公共卫生知识起到了重要的作用 ;中学生群体目前对SARS仍旧有一定的恐惧心理 ;中学生注重卫生的程度因为SARS的远去而有所降低。加强公众对于流行疾病的基本认识 ,进一步改善其卫生习惯 ,仍然是我们需要面对的问题。     

惊艳惟美酥油花——大隐于青藏高原的艺术探奇

随心结缘派的酥油花塑制品 郭沫若先生生前在北京曾闻听藏族学者更登曲培提及在青藏高原上有一种油塑艺术，说它的塑制品精美绝伦、奇艳无比，名曰——酥油花，观之能疗疾、食之能益寿！     

The determinants of bilateral trade

Abstract.  In this paper we present a monopolistic competition model that incorporates asymmetric trade barriers and international differences in production costs. The model implies a highly non‐linear bilateral trade equation. Estimation of this equation yields parameters for the elasticity of substitution and trade costs that are more reasonable than those found in previous studies. A simulation indicates that trade liberalization will shift trade from rich countries to poor countries and from within continental trading partners with preferential trade agreements to intercontinental trading partners. JEL Classification: F1     

CREDIT CYCLES REDUX*

Theoretical studies have shown that under unorthodox assumptions on preferences and production technologies, collateral constraints can act as a powerful amplification and propagation mechanism of exogenous shocks. We investigate whether or not this result holds under more standard assumptions. We find that collateral constraints typically generate small output amplification. Large amplification is obtained as a “knife‐edge” type of result.     

Foreign debt and economic growth

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub‐samples of various regions. Cross‐sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American sub‐samples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The sub‐sample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. JEL classification: F34, H6, O23.     

Poor People‘s Income to Be Increased

During the period of the 11 th FiveYear Program, Chinese govern ment will be inclined to take policies to realize a balanced economic growth, equalized opportunities and social justice so as to avoid that the poor people become extremely poor and the gap between poor and wealthy become larger, according to the analysts.……     

用作图法确定光在单轴晶体中传播的方向

用作图法直观确定常见几种情况下入射光在单轴晶体双折射现象中o、e光传播方向,解决折射定律无法解决的问题     

A theoretical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies

The margin system is the first line of defense against the default risk of a clearinghouse. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set, the next concern will be the opportunity cost of the investors, because high opportunity cost discourages people from hedging futures, and thus defeats the function of a futures market. In this article, we first develop different measures of prudentiality and opportunity cost. We then formulate a statistical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies, all of which strike a balance between prudentiality and opportunity cost. Three margin‐setting methodologies, namely, (1) using simple moving averages; (2) using exponentially weighted moving averages; (3) using a GARCH approach, are applied to the Hang Seng Index futures. Keeping the same prudentiality level, it is shown that the one using a GARCH approach by and large gives the lowest average overcharge. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:117–145, 2004     

The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004